Switch Predicted as Best-Selling Next-Gen Console Despite Delayed Release

Market research firm DFC Intelligence forecasts the Nintendo Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. This impressive prediction positions the Switch 2 as the clear market leader. Let's delve into the details of this forecast.

Dominating the Market: 80 Million Units by 2028

DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, names the Nintendo Switch 2 the "clear winner" in the next-gen console race. Nintendo is expected to lead the console market, outpacing competitors Microsoft and Sony. This dominance is attributed to the Switch 2's anticipated earlier release (rumored for 2025) and the relatively limited competition in the early stages. The report projects sales of 15-17 million units in 2025, soaring to over 80 million units by 2028. Such high demand may even challenge Nintendo's manufacturing capabilities.

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain largely conceptual. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. However, the three-year head start (unless a surprise release occurs in 2026) gives the Switch 2 a substantial advantage. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong intellectual properties.

The enduring popularity of Nintendo and the Switch is undeniable, with lifetime Switch sales surpassing those of the PlayStation 2 in the United States. Circana (formerly NPD) analyst Mat Piscatella announced on BlueSky that the Switch, with 46.6 million lifetime units sold, is now the second best-selling console in US history, behind only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is noteworthy despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline for the Switch.

A Resurgent Video Game Industry

DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive picture for the video game industry. Founder and CEO David Cole states that after a two-year slump, the industry is poised for strong growth through the end of the decade, having grown more than 20 times over the past three decades. 2025 is predicted to be a particularly strong year, fueled by new product releases. In addition to the Switch 2, the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI is expected to significantly boost overall sales.

The video game audience is projected to exceed 4 billion players by 2027. The rising popularity of "high-end gaming-on-the-go," combined with the growth of esports and gaming influencers, contributes to increased hardware sales across PC and consoles.